GoldenOctober2024

Trump's trade advisor Navarro strongly criticized the media for using "intimidation tactics," believing it creates fear in the trade agenda. He stated that protocols need time, and that the U.S. may first reach trade agreements with the UK, India, or South Korea to demonstrate the effectiveness of Trump's strategy, calling on the world to stop mocking the U.S.

US economic data shows that PCE inflation stagnated for the first time in March, with strong consumer spending. The PCE index has remained stable since February, with core PCE at its mildest in nearly five years. Real personal consumption expenditure rose by 0.7%, reflecting an increase in household spending to avoid tariffs. First-quarter economic data indicates that before tariffs raised prices, consumer spending was moderate, and a surge in imports led to the first contraction of the US economy.

Jin10 reported on April 30 that a draft of the mining agreement seen by the media shows that the U.S. and Ukraine are expected to sign the agreement later on Wednesday, allowing the U.S. to have priority participation in new natural resource transactions in Ukraine, but it will not automatically transfer shares of Ukraine's mineral wealth or any gas infrastructure to the U.S. The draft stipulates the establishment of a U.S.-Ukraine Joint Reconstruction Fund, which will receive 50% of the profits and royalties from Ukraine's new natural resource permits. Any future U.S. military aid to Ukraine will be counted as a contribution to the Joint Fund. However, the draft does not specify how the income from the Joint Fund will be used, who will benefit from it, and who will control expenditure decisions. According to the draft, the U.S. or its designated other entities will have priority access to new permits, licenses, and investment opportunities in Ukraine's natural resources sector, but this is not exclusive. Existing deals are not included.

Jin10 reported on April 30 that the U.S. core PCE price index year-on-year for March recorded 2.6%, hitting a new low since June 2024, in line with expectations. The month-on-month core PCE price index for March recorded 0%, the lowest since April 2020, lower than the expected 0.1%.

Jin10 reported on April 30 that on April 29, the Pakistan Army conducted military exercises in the country's Sialkot, Narowal, Zafarwal, and Shakargarh, involving tanks, artillery, and infantry.

The market strategist from Chicago's DRW company pointed out that the 2.5% decline in final sales GDP data indicates economic weakness, marking the lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic. He believes this may stimulate the bond market, but attention needs to be paid to inflation indicators and the core personal consumption expenditure index, both of which are above expectations and may exert upward pressure on the bond market.

Jin10 data, April 30 - Ukrainian government sources indicate that Ukraine is ready to sign a mineral agreement with the United States, possibly later on Wednesday. Ukraine's First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko is heading to the United States to sign the agreement. Ukrainian officials hope that signing this agreement, driven by Trump, will help solidify U.S. support for Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Jin10 reported on April 30 that Jamie Cox, managing partner of Harris Financial Group, is not surprised that the overall GDP data is not worse given the surge in imports. However, at a deeper level, the actual final demand remains very strong. Those who underestimate American consumers will only suffer the consequences.

Jin10 reported on April 30 that Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management, stated that the contraction of the U.S. economy should not come as a surprise, but the market is behaving as if it is unexpected. During this time, Trump is trying to negotiate to gain market acceptance of his tariff policies, which makes modeling and forecasting extremely difficult. When the market cannot make reasonable predictions, it often turns to a pessimistic interpretation of events.

U.S. economic growth is slowing in the first quarter of 2025, and economists warn that the report may not fully reflect the actual situation. A surge in imports may affect the data, but it's not the whole story. Economists point out that while imports have a negative impact on GDP, there will be offsetting positive growth in other areas.

On April 30, Jin10 reported that labor costs in the United States rose moderately in the first quarter, as economic uncertainty stemming from tariffs cooled labor demand. Labor costs in the first quarter increased by 0.9%, the same as the previous quarter. Data released on Tuesday showed that there is 1.02 job openings for every unemployed person, slightly down from 1.06 in February. President Trump's comprehensive tariffs have weakened business confidence, and some economists worry this could soon translate into unemployment. Economists expect that the Federal Reserve (FED) will cut interest rates again sometime this year.

Jin10 data, April 30th: The U.S. GDP unexpectedly fell into contraction in the first quarter, significantly increasing the risk of a U.S. economic recession. The U.S. financial trading and prediction market platform Kalshi currently estimates that the probability of a recession in the U.S. this year is 74%.

The U.S. economy contracted for the first time in the first quarter, due to a surge in imports and weakened consumer spending, with net exports dragging GDP down by nearly 5 percentage points. Consumer spending growth has slowed, but business equipment spending has grown strongly, at an annual rate of 22.5%. This may be one of the ripple effects of Trump's trade policies.

Jin10 data reported on April 30: The initial value of the annualized quarter-on-quarter real GDP in the United States for the first quarter recorded -0.3%, the lowest since the second quarter of 2022.

Jin10 data April 30 news, financial website Forexlive: Germany's April CPI month-on-month slightly higher than expected, but will not change the European Central Bank's plan to cut interest rates in June. However, core inflation has seen a significant jump. We will observe the developments in the coming months, but trade negotiations remain the market's focal point. In the long run, if progress is made in the trade war, we may see a strong and sudden rebound in demand, which will drive economic activity and prices to rise. This is worth noting, as it may trigger a repricing of stronger interest rate expectations.

UBS Global Wealth Management analysts point out that the US dollar appears to be Oversold recently and may face a consolidation period, but could weaken in the medium term. The slowdown in the US economy may be greater than in other regions, and the rising fiscal deficit will become a focus, with The Federal Reserve (FED) possibly resuming interest rate cuts later. It is recommended to reduce dollar allocation and choose currencies such as the Japanese yen, euro, British pound, and Australian dollar.

Jin10 data reported on April 30, IG Group stated that the US-Japan trade negotiations lack progress, continuing to cast a shadow over Japan's economic outlook, complicating the path to normalization of the Bank of Japan's policies. In the face of ongoing uncertainty over tariffs and risks to economic growth, policymakers may choose to remain on the sidelines. The latest economic forecasts will be the focus. Given the risks faced by Japan's export-dependent economy, GDP growth expectations may be revised downward this year. Meanwhile, the rising potential Inflation pressures over the past few months could pose upside risks to the Bank of Japan's inflation outlook. However, wage growth exceeding Inflation may provide confidence for further tightening of policies.

Jin10 data, April 30th: On April 30th, executives of Weier Co., Ltd. stated during an institutional research that the company hopes to further improve its gross profit margin by continuously optimizing its product structure and streamlining its Supply Chain for efficiency. It was introduced that the company's overall gross profit margin for the full year of 2024 is 29.36%, an increase of 7.74 percentage points year-on-year; in the first quarter of 2025, the gross profit margin continues to improve, achieving an overall gross profit margin of 31.03%, an increase of 3.14 percentage points year-on-year and an increase of 2.05 percentage points quarter-on-quarter.

Monex Securities in Japan pointed out that global uncertainty is on the rise, and it is expected that the Bank of Japan will maintain the policy interest rate unchanged. The outlook for interest rate hikes is hindered under Trump's tariff policy. Inflation remains high, and wage negotiations show that price pressures still exist. In the future, the Bank of Japan will seek a balance between inflation and global uncertainty, and it is expected that another rate hike may occur later. There is uncertainty regarding a rate hike in September, and a reassessment will be made after the meeting.

Jin10 data reported on April 30, that on the night of April 28, 2025, Su Yan Jing Shen disclosed a plan for a private placement, aiming to raise 1.8 billion yuan for a salt production project from brine storage. However, this plan has raised doubts among investors, mainly focused on the issue of the issuance price and fund planning. On April 30, Su Yan Jing Shen responded, stating that the private placement plan had undergone cautious verification, aligned with development planning, and would help enhance core competitiveness. In response to investor concerns, the company stated that it would balance the interests of both new and old shareholders to the greatest extent possible and determine the price through market negotiation.