Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin may fall back to $100,000, macroeconomic unfavorable factors limit the pump.

Maelstrom Fund Chief Investment Officer Arthur Hayes warned that increasing macroeconomic pressures could drive the price of Bitcoin (BTC) down to the level of $100,000—while he has already profited from crypto assets in advance. He believes that due to concerns over more tariffs, a sluggish credit market, and a slowdown in job opportunities, the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) could retreat to levels of $100,000 and $3,000, respectively.

1. Hayes sold over 13 million dollars worth of ETH, ENA, and PEPE

Hayes linked the recent pullback in Crypto Assets to new tariff concerns triggered by a disappointing non-farm payroll report, which showed that the U.S. added only 73,000 new jobs in July, a sign of economic weakness. Hayes also pointed out that weak credit growth in major economies is hindering the growth of nominal GDP and warned that Bitcoin and Ether could further drop to levels of $100,000 and $3,000 respectively.

His comments on Saturday were a response to a post on the blockchain analysis platform Lookonchain, which highlighted that Hayes recently sold off $8.32 million worth of ETH, $4.62 million worth of Ethena, and $414,700 worth of Pepe meme coins. The wallet that Hayes recently sold from currently holds tokens worth $28.3 million, of which $22.95 million is stored in USDC stablecoin.

2. Bitcoin is about to face a double-digit pullback: macroeconomic headwinds

Hayes' comments echoed widespread concerns that macroeconomic headwinds could hinder the momentum of Crypto Assets. Credit tightening, renewed tariff increases, and a soft job market could put pressure on risk assets, test investor confidence, and potentially trigger a market correction.

CoinGecko's data shows that Bitcoin has dropped over 7.7% since reaching its historic high of $123,000 on July 14, while Ether has decreased by 12.5% since breaking the $3,900 mark on July 28. A drop in Bitcoin's price to $100,000 would signify an 18.7% retracement.

However, many industry analysts believe that Bitcoin has passed the period of significant double-digit pullbacks. This includes Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, who pointed out that since BlackRock submitted its spot Bitcoin ETF application in June 2023, Bitcoin's "volatility has greatly decreased, and there have been no nauseating declines." Mitchell Askew, chief analyst at Bitcoin mining company Blockware Solutions, added, "The era of parabolic bull markets and devastating bear markets is over."

3. Tariffs Trigger Concerns in the Crypto Assets Sector: Market Sentiment Shifts Dramatically

With the spread of the U.S. tariff turmoil, a sense of anxiety permeates the cryptocurrency space, and traders are feeling a sense of urgency. Hayes' recent sell-off is not just a personal strategy; it profoundly reminds us how geopolitical upheavals can disrupt the value of cryptocurrencies. The market felt the tremors of Hayes' decision, especially with his massive liquidation of Ethereum, marking a sharp shift in market sentiment. In this turbulent environment, investors can only navigate through the murky waters formed by the interplay of international tensions and changes in economic policy, making the future of crypto assets more precarious than ever.

4. Hayes' Strategic Shift: Altcoin Liquidation Case

In the current market environment filled with uncertainty, Hayes seems to be readjusting his investment strategy, transferring over 80% of his assets to stablecoins like USDC. He stated, "Given Trump's tariff policy and the weak employment report, risk assets, especially crypto assets, are at a disadvantage." This adjustment of a defensive strategy shows a stark contrast with his previous aggressive investment approach. Hayes chose to liquidate his Ether and other high-risk assets, forcing other investors to reconsider their investment strategies in the context of potential economic turmoil triggered by tariffs that could impact the entire digital space.

The market reacted strongly to the changes in tariffs, highlighting a high sensitivity to the actions of industry giants. After his sell-off, Ether plummeted nearly 5%, and altcoins like ENA and PEPE are also under downward pressure. Such reactions have set a bottom line for Crypto Assets traders — indicating that the market's sentiment is tightly intertwined with that of a few influential figures. Even minor changes in the portfolios of major participants could trigger a series of emotional trades, exacerbating the unsettling volatility during uncertain times.

5. Developing Investment Strategies in a Constantly Changing Environment

In this economic storm, many investors are reshaping their defense strategies. The strategy of converting to stablecoins has significantly increased, indicating that investors are no longer chasing quick profits but are instead focusing on liquidity and risk aversion. In light of the cautious signals from market movers like Hayes, emerging enterprises need to develop robust and compliant payment frameworks to withstand these economic storms. For those businesses looking to empower stakeholders and move away from the impulse of pure speculative trading, adapting to this reality is crucial.

6. Long-term Prospects in a Decentralized Market

Despite the ever-changing cryptocurrency market, Hayes remains cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin and Ethereum. He predicts that the price of Bitcoin may hover around $100,000, while Ethereum could surge to $3,000, even as they continue to grapple with short-term volatility. Here, his perspective goes beyond mere volatility; it prompts a deeper exploration of how regulatory changes will shape the future of digital assets. Recognizing the interplay of macroeconomic factors and the intrinsic potential of cryptocurrencies can illuminate the path to growth even during turbulent times.

Conclusion:

Arthur Hayes' recent actions in the Crypto Assets field have sounded alarm bells for all investors navigating the turmoil caused by U.S. tariff policies. As the market landscape evolves into a complex and unpredictable battleground, cultivating a keen perception of market changes and actively responding to regulatory shifts becomes crucial. Many may find themselves caught between short-term chaos and long-term visions. By closely monitoring the signals from market leaders like Hayes and establishing a solid operational framework, traders can cultivate resilience and adeptly navigate this era of uncertainty.