August alt season observation: Cardano, Dogwifhat, and Fartcoin lead the rise, while Bitcoin's market share remains above 60%, and the market shows selective rotation.

As the crypto market enters August 2025, the Altcoin Season Index (ASI) remains below the 40 mark, indicating that the Bitcoin dominance rate (BTC.D) is still over 60%, and the overall signals for the alt season are weak. However, Cardano (ADA), Dogwifhat (WIF), and Fartcoin, the three major tokens, are performing well against the trend, representing the three directions of ecological applications, Meme speculation, and Liquidity capture, respectively. This article analyzes the fundamentals of tokens, on-chain data, and market sentiment under the current selective rotation pattern, assessing potential deepening signals for the alt season.

Cardano (ADA): Eco-driven anti-dip asset

• Current Price and Market Cap: ADA is currently quoted at $0.77, with a market cap of approximately $27 billion (CoinMarketCap data), and a 24-hour trading volume stable above $1.1 billion, indicating strong liquidity support.
• Core Technology Progress:
  • Hydra scaling solution has been launched on the mainnet, improving Layer-2 transaction efficiency.
  • Mithril Quick Synchronization Protocol continues to advance, significantly reducing node synchronization time.
  • Voltaire Governance Upgrade Deepens community autonomy, giving ADA holders greater voice in financial treasury allocations.
• Growth of Ecosystem Applications: The activity of stablecoins Djed and USDA has increased, driving the total locked value (TVL) of the DeFi ecosystem to exceed $470 million (DeFiLlama data), showing a steady growth trend in July.
• Community Activity: LunarCrush monitoring shows that the discussion of the ADA community persisted throughout July, with a recovery in retail investor participation. With a comprehensive ecological construction and community resilience, ADA has become a preferred long-term investment target during the weak alt season.

Dogwifhat (WIF): Meme Coin Liquidity Trend

• Speculative Attributes Highlighted: WIF is currently priced at $0.96, with a market cap of $964 million and a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $320 million (CoinMarketCap data). As a new Meme coin on the Solana chain in 2023, the high turnover rate confirms that speculative funds continue to flow in.
• On-chain liquidity advantage: Giant whale wallets are frequently active in the Solana ecosystem DEX, ensuring high liquidity for WIF. Although there are no actual application scenarios, its position as a liquidity hub for the Meme sector has been solidified in the bear market.
• Market Sentiment Indicator: Historical data shows that Meme assets often rebound first during periods of Bitcoin dominance decline. The current popularity of WIF indicates that even if the overall alt season has not formed, high-risk preference funds are already marginally positioning in the Meme track.

Fartcoin (FART): High Liquidity Joke Coin Rises Unusually

• Liquidity Capture Ability: FART is currently priced at $1.05, with a market cap of $1.05 billion and a 24-hour trading volume of $280 million. Although this Token started as a parody culture, it has moved beyond the short-lived Meme coin category thanks to its verified contract security and sustained DEX depth.
• Community-Driven Model: The Telegram community is highly active, and the social mentions of LunarCrush are steadily rising, driving net capital inflow on a weekly basis. During the high-volatility period of Bitcoin's dominance, FART has become a tool for speculators to bet on high beta returns.
• Market Positioning: A lack of functional use cases, but the DEX high volatility trading characteristics have placed it on the rotation list at the edge of the alt season, reflecting the market's pursuit of liquidity premium assets.

Analysis of the Current Situation of Alt Season: Selective Rotation Dominates, Comprehensive Outbreak Awaits Opportunity

(Bitcoin Dominance | Source: TradingView)

• Key Index Signal: Alt Season Index (ASI) currently reports 38, far below the defined threshold of 75 for a full alt season. TradingView data shows that Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) remains above 60%, with no significant shift in capital focus.
• Rotation Logic Verification: The counter-cyclical activity of the three major Tokens, ADA (ecological value), WIF (Meme speculation), and FART (Liquidity premium), confirms that the current market phase is dominated by structural opportunity.
• Potential Catalysts:
• Will the inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs continue?
  • Major upgrades of mainstream public chains (such as Cardano) are implemented.
• Can the leading tokens in the Meme sector break through the market cap bottleneck?
• Market Forecast: If the aforementioned catalysts materialize in Q3-Q4 of 2025, the current selective rotation may develop into a full-blown alt season. However, in the short term, narrative-driven + liquidity premium + community enthusiasm remain the core dimensions for capital selection of coins.

Conclusion: Structural opportunities advancing on three fronts, waiting for the inflection point of Bitcoin's dominance rate The current alt season presents a "bitter-sweet" pattern: under the high dominance of Bitcoin, ADA builds a moat through ecological construction, while WIF and FART attract speculative trading relying on the Meme effect and liquidity advantages. This differentiation confirms the independent pricing logic of the three elements fundamentals, speculation, and liquidity in the current market environment.

Key observation points:

1. Cardano needs to pay attention to whether the TVL can突破5亿美元 and whether the adoption rate of Hydra accelerates.
2. Dogwifhat needs to guard against the risk of sudden liquidity drop caused by Solana chain congestion.
3. Fartcoin's high volatility attributes require strict stop-loss strategies.
4. The ultimate signal still depends on whether the Bitcoin dominance rate (BTC.D) can effectively break below the 58% threshold.

Investors should adopt a "core + satellite" allocation: ADA as the core holding for technological iteration, while using small positions in WIF/FART to capture volatility opportunities, and closely monitor the outflow rhythm of Grayscale funds and the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy on risk appetite.