Recently, ETH has fallen back to the $4.5K—$4.7K range after hitting a historical high, showing obvious high-level consolidation. The market characteristic is a decrease in volume after an increase, with bulls and bears frequently battling around integer levels and near previous highs. For novice investors, seeing the price “falling from a high point” does not equal a trend reversal; it is more likely to be normal turnover and a slowdown in rhythm after a main upward phase.
First, the macro expectations have shifted to a friendly stance. The expectation of falling interest rates has raised the valuation anchor for risk assets, and tech stocks along with crypto assets have benefited simultaneously, with ETH reacting faster in the chain of “expectation improvement - price leading.”
Second, spot fund driving. The incremental funds from the spot market and institutional allocation make the characteristic of “buying on dips” more prominent.
Thirdly, the narrative resonates with the fundamentals. The Ethereum ecosystem continues to expand in DeFi, stablecoin liquidation layers, on-chain settlement, and L2 scalability, with active network usage and development activities.
However, there are two major constraints: first, the seasonal pullback that commonly occurs in September in history, which makes emotions more likely to amplify short-term fluctuations; second, the profit-taking at high levels and leveraged funds are more sensitive, making them more prone to triggering panic sell-offs in response to sudden news and volatility.
In this phase of the recent upward trend, BTC’s volatility has relatively converged, while ETH is stronger. The underlying logic is that funds rotate between “value anchor - application anchor”: when macro expectations dominate, BTC usually moves first; when application and ecosystem expectations strengthen, ETH has greater elasticity. Recently, ETH has set new highs while BTC has been consolidating, which reflects this style switch. For allocators, understanding that “correlation is not constant” helps manage volatility at the portfolio level.
Technical levels are not “magic numbers,” but they can help beginners turn “vague feelings” into “actionable price ranges.”
Step 1: Make a plan and avoid chasing prices. Use a strategy of buying/selling in batches instead of making a one-time decision, spreading the “luck” across multiple trading points.
Step 2: Observe the rhythm, not the points. Breaking through is the risk, while fluctuations are not. Set stop-loss and take-profit based on the holding period. Use weekly signals to manage weekly positions, and daily rules to manage intraday positions.
Step 3: Prioritize allocating to the main assets. During the main upward phase of ETH, be cautious about “doubling down” on high beta long-tail tokens. For beginners, a structure of main assets + moderate satellite positions is easier to endure fluctuations during volatile periods and enjoy the trend.
The pullback after the ATH feels more like “high-level digestion + turnover.” The macro and funding environment remains friendly for the medium term, but short-term fluctuations will be faster and larger. By using structured operations and risk management, and acknowledging uncertainty, one can turn “drawdowns” into a process of “chip optimization.” For beginners, it is essential to first learn to walk in rhythm before discussing capturing the tops and bottoms.
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