Is Bitcoin reversing or in a downward correction? Market divergence intensifies the debate.

Market Divergence Intensifies: Does the Rebound Turn into a Reversal or a Downward Correction?

The open interest in Bitcoin has increased, and the key price levels on the liquidation map have been intensified, further exacerbating market divergence. Currently, there are two main viewpoints: the rebound is turning into a reversal, or it is the second distribution of a downward correction. Both viewpoints are based on an analysis of supply and demand dynamics but lead to different conclusions.

The K-line is a visual representation of the supply and demand relationship, with each K-line reflecting the outcome of the battle between the buying and selling forces. Price fluctuations, pullbacks, and failed breakouts all stem from changes in the supply and demand structure.

The marble theory materializes the relationship between supply and demand: the orders on the order book form different thicknesses of "glass", and active transactions are the "marbles" with momentum. Price changes are the process of marbles constantly breaking through the glass, pushing the price forward. This analytical method is closer to the essence of the market, emphasizing the structural motivations rather than simply predicting candlesticks.

Based on the marble theory, it can be concluded that:

  • The market price "breaks through" the price range in a jumping manner.
  • The density of orders at different price levels varies, creating support and pressure.
  • The larger the active trading, the stronger the momentum.
  • Some limit orders are "false liquidity"
  • Price behavior has inertia, which may lead to overheating or overcooling.

The first viewpoint suggests that the rebound may turn into a reversal, mainly based on three aspects:

  1. The relationship between long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH).

    • The LTH-RPC indicator is approaching the 4%-7% threshold range, suggesting a potential bottom.
    • The STH-RPC indicator curve converges, indicating a restoration of market confidence.
  2. The supply and demand relationship between stablecoins and Bitcoin ( BTC-SSR )

    • The market value of stablecoins is increasing, which may flow into Bitcoin and drive up the price.
  3. The formation of a dual anchor effect in high and low chip concentration zones

    • The $60,000-$70,000 and $93,000-$100,000 ranges each gather about 11% of the chips.
    • The price may fluctuate between $70,000 and $93,000

The impact of tariff policies is weakening, and market sentiment is gradually easing. Short-term holders are increasing profits, while long-term holders have not yet faced selling pressure, with a large amount of stablecoins possibly flowing into Bitcoin. These factors support that the rebound may turn into a reversal.

Review of Intensifying Market Divergence: Does the Rebound Turn into a Reversal, or is it a Second Distribution of Downward Correction

The second viewpoint believes that the current situation is the second distribution of a downward correction:

  • The US stock market has entered a technical bear market, in line with the Wyckoff distribution theory.
  • Bitcoin is difficult to operate independently of the US stock market's trends.
  • Tariffs may exacerbate inflation, leading to stagflation or even recession.

The performance of the US stock market shows:

  • The initial supply point PSY( appeared in early November )
  • A buying climax occurred in BC( in November-December )
  • In December, AR( naturally fell back to ) and ST( was tested for the second time ).
  • Weak signal SOW( appeared at the end of December to early January )
  • In mid-January, there was a surge and then a pullback on UT( )
  • After the UTAD( distribution in February, there was a rebound followed by a fall) and LPSY(, finally reaching the supply point).

This conforms to the Wyckoff distribution theory, indicating that the US stock market bull run has ended and the distribution is complete. Before finding the LPS( last support point ), the US stock market may continue to fall.

Review of the market divergence intensifying: Does the rebound turn into a reversal, or is it a second distribution of the downward correction

The core divergence between the two viewpoints lies in:

  1. Can the US stock market find a bottom here?
  2. Can Bitcoin be independent of the U.S. stock market trends?

The market divergence has further intensified, and investors need to carefully assess the two viewpoints and make a judgment.

Market Divergence Intensifies Review: Rebound Turns into Reversal, or Second Distribution of Downward Correction

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alpha_leakervip
· 07-11 10:59
It's already broken through, and that's it.
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ColdWalletGuardianvip
· 07-09 15:54
Big dump is not far away, right?
View OriginalReply0
FloorPriceNightmarevip
· 07-09 15:27
Are you sure this is not a chip rise?
View OriginalReply0
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