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Is Bitcoin reversing or in a downward correction? Market divergence intensifies the debate.
Market Divergence Intensifies: Does the Rebound Turn into a Reversal or a Downward Correction?
The open interest in Bitcoin has increased, and the key price levels on the liquidation map have been intensified, further exacerbating market divergence. Currently, there are two main viewpoints: the rebound is turning into a reversal, or it is the second distribution of a downward correction. Both viewpoints are based on an analysis of supply and demand dynamics but lead to different conclusions.
The K-line is a visual representation of the supply and demand relationship, with each K-line reflecting the outcome of the battle between the buying and selling forces. Price fluctuations, pullbacks, and failed breakouts all stem from changes in the supply and demand structure.
The marble theory materializes the relationship between supply and demand: the orders on the order book form different thicknesses of "glass", and active transactions are the "marbles" with momentum. Price changes are the process of marbles constantly breaking through the glass, pushing the price forward. This analytical method is closer to the essence of the market, emphasizing the structural motivations rather than simply predicting candlesticks.
Based on the marble theory, it can be concluded that:
The first viewpoint suggests that the rebound may turn into a reversal, mainly based on three aspects:
The relationship between long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH).
The supply and demand relationship between stablecoins and Bitcoin ( BTC-SSR )
The formation of a dual anchor effect in high and low chip concentration zones
The impact of tariff policies is weakening, and market sentiment is gradually easing. Short-term holders are increasing profits, while long-term holders have not yet faced selling pressure, with a large amount of stablecoins possibly flowing into Bitcoin. These factors support that the rebound may turn into a reversal.
The second viewpoint believes that the current situation is the second distribution of a downward correction:
The performance of the US stock market shows:
This conforms to the Wyckoff distribution theory, indicating that the US stock market bull run has ended and the distribution is complete. Before finding the LPS( last support point ), the US stock market may continue to fall.
The core divergence between the two viewpoints lies in:
The market divergence has further intensified, and investors need to carefully assess the two viewpoints and make a judgment.