XRP futures contract skyrocketed 32% - Are traders optimistic or pessimistic?

On April 7, the price of XRP fell to its lowest level since the beginning of the year, reaching $1.61. However, in the past two weeks, this altcoin has rebounded strongly with an impressive increase of 25%, driven by the overall recovery of the crypto market and a significant rise in open contracts (OI) for XRP.

The open interest of XRP futures contracts | Source: CoinGlassSpecifically, in just two days from April 21 to 23, the open interest of XRP surged by 32%, from 3.14 billion USD to 4.13 billion USD. This development reflects a strong return of derivative traders and is often seen as a positive signal, especially when open interest increases alongside prices – a sign that market sentiment is leaning towards optimism.

However, data from the Velo platform presents a contrasting perspective. Although both the price and open interest are increasing, the negative spread in the open interest of the futures contracts indicates that most traders are still betting on a bearish trend for XRP. Additionally, the funding rate remains close to 0, reflecting the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, while also indicating that the crypto market still has a lot of hesitation about the next direction.

Total premium fee for XRP, spot chart and open contracts | Source: VeloThe delta index of accumulated volume on the spot order book turned positive in April — a positive signal indicating that demand is strengthening. This indicator reflects the net difference between active buy and sell orders across multiple exchanges, and when it exceeds the threshold of 0, it indicates that bulls are gaining the upper hand, with the number of market buy orders significantly outnumbering sell orders.

However, despite the increase in open interest in the futures market, the price of XRP has yet to make a clear breakout. The current situation shows that this coin is caught in a tug-of-war between increasing buying pressure in the spot market and the prevailing pessimistic sentiment in perpetual contracts.

Will XRP reach double digits?

After the recent price increase, Sistine Research — a cryptocurrency investment community — has made an ambitious forecast for XRP. Accordingly, in the long term, this coin could reach a level between $33 and $50, based on the (symmetrical triangle) pattern on the long-term timeframe (HTF). This pattern previously appeared before XRP's remarkable 2,600% price surge in 2017. Even in the most optimistic scenario, Sistine Research expects XRP could reach the price range of $77 to $100.

The price target for XRP by Sistine Research | Source: X.comCurrently, XRP is trading around $2.23 with a market capitalization of approximately 131 billion USD. If it reaches the $33 mark, the market cap of this coin will exceed 2 trillion USD — an increase of more than 1,400% — and even surpass the current market cap of Bitcoin.

From a short-term perspective (LTF), XRP is forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern, indicating the potential to test the resistance area from $2.50 to $2.67. This area also coincides with the Fibonacci extension levels drawn from the neckline ( to the lowest point of the head of the pattern.

![xrp-tang-gia])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-1daf4cc5a8b5e325c047e78a662bb31e(XRP/USDT 4-hour chart | Source: TradingViewHowever, the RSI is currently approaching the overbought zone, indicating the possibility of a correction or a slowdown in the short term as the price approaches the upper resistance level.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should do their own research before making any decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

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