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Will Dogecoin Reach 1 USD? Only When This Happens, Analyst Says
In the latest market update, cryptocurrency analyst VisionPulsed has downgraded optimistic expectations for Dogecoin, arguing that reaching the long-desired milestone of $1 will require precise adjustments of market forces, which has yet to materialize. While acknowledging the potential for speculative surges, he warns that the overall context is still not complete, causing the parabolic breakout momentum of this coin to remain delayed. How Can Dogecoin Reach $1? He presented a case based on data: unless Ethereum breaks strongly to new highs while the halving cycle duration is extended and the global M2 liquidity context remains supportive, the next parabolic rise of Dogecoin is still out of reach. He noted that the immediate context is the recovery of Bitcoin, once again dismissing the prospect of a widespread altcoin rally. Ethereum has improved its setup by creating a new high cycle and surpassing the $4,000 region, but currently, it is stuck below the last two technical barriers of 2021—"the 2021 high in May and the 2021 high, which is the all-time high." He stated clearly: "Once ETH surpasses this high, ETH officially enters a bull market." Until that confirmation, he considers the talk about the "Doge to the moon" phase about to happen as premature. The price movement of Dogecoin itself has not helped the situation. Vision Pulsed emphasized a clear top wick candle formed after traders "rushed in," calling it "definitely not the candle you want to see." He pointed out a previous case where a similar wick candle appeared before a local reversal, using it to warn against interpreting short selling as a sustainable trend. According to him, Dogecoin is still in a broad accumulation phase and oscillation - an area he describes as a bottoming process that may include fakeouts on both sides - rather than a confirmed uptrend. Even in a positive scenario, he warns that a breakdown of the general conditions could lead to "another round" of price decline before any real altcoin season occurs. The time factor is the second pillar in his analysis. He marks the 486 days since the last Bitcoin halving as a periodic turning point in previous cycles. "We are rapidly approaching what is considered the final price push in 2021... 486 days since the halving," he said, recalling that both of the last two cycles experienced a significant correction followed by a final price increase around that time. With April 19, 2024, being the halving date, August 18, 2025, is a similar threshold this time—a day that he sees as context, not fate. "Nothing is guaranteed," he emphasized, reflecting on the limits of historical rhyme. Liquidity — through the lens of the popular M2 money supply overlay — remains supportive, but is not decisive in his view. He acknowledges that "everyone" is watching M2 and right now it "suggests there is potential for price increase during this phase." However, he emphasizes that this relationship is not permanent: in previous cycles, M2 continued to rise even as cryptocurrencies fell into a bear market. The takeaway is practical and not dogmatic: "We will use it until it is no longer effective," but it cannot, by itself, guarantee a prolonged price rally. From this macro platform and liquidity, he draws a clear gating function for the main goal of Dogecoin. To make a sustainable leap towards the one dollar price level, three conditions need to converge: Ethereum must surpass the 2021 high to confirm a new bull market; the "extended" window of the halving cycle - focusing on the rhythm of about 486 days after the halving - needs to pave the way for a final price surge; and global M2 expansion needs to maintain enough support to sustain risk appetite. In the very record of Dogecoin, he allows for significant fluctuations without changing the structure. "Can we have price swings up and down of 30 cents? Certainly," he said, viewing such fluctuations as ranges that can be traded within a larger consolidation rather than as a starting point for the final uptrend. What will turn that range into a trend is not a single candle or an individual breakout, but the multi-asset linkage he reiterates throughout the update.