The next ten years of Ethereum: a hundredfold rise, opportunity or illusion?

Author: Joe Zhou, Foresight News

Original Title: Looking Forward to the Next Decade: Ethereum Still Has 100 Times Growth Potential

Today marks the tenth year of Ethereum.

In the past decade, Ethereum has become the asset with the highest investment return rate globally, possibly without exception.

In the past decade, Nvidia's market value increased by 150 times, Bitcoin's market value grew by 300 times, while Ethereum's market value surged by 3600 times, reaching 450 billion dollars. In just ten years, Ethereum has become one of the top thirty assets in the world by market value.

Over the past decade, Ethereum has become one of the world's safest financial systems.

In the past decade, up to one trillion U.S. dollars of funds have circulated on Ethereum, with the annual trading volume of stablecoins on Ethereum reaching 20 trillion U.S. dollars. In addition to stablecoins, there are decentralized exchanges on Ethereum (with daily trading volumes reaching up to ten billion U.S. dollars), staking systems (involving funds of tens of billions of U.S. dollars), lending protocols (tens of billions of U.S. dollars), derivatives (daily trading volumes of tens of billions of U.S. dollars), NFTs, and more. Moreover, the Ethereum mainnet itself has never experienced a single downtime, outage, or theft incident.

Looking back over the past decade, at least three revolutionary products have emerged from the Ethereum ecosystem, just like Apple launched the Mac, iPhone, AirPods, and iPad, with Ethereum being the absolute leader in the market.

Stablecoins had an annual trading volume of 28 trillion USD, with over 70% of the trading volume occurring on Ethereum; in 2016, the world's first DAO was born on Ethereum, and now over 90% of the largest DAOs by global TVL (Total Value Locked) are within the Ethereum ecosystem; during the summer of DeFi in 2020, Ethereum was the sole center, with a market share as high as 95%-99%; in 2021, NFTs first broke into the mainstream on a large scale, with Ethereum as the main battlefield, accounting for over 90% of the annual trading volume... Meanwhile, tokenization of US stocks, tokenization of US debt, RWA, AI Agent memes, and others are just beginning.

What about ten years later? Ethereum has already become an asset ranked in the top 30 by market value globally, surpassing well-known companies like Meta, TSMC, Visa, and Mastercard. Is this its endpoint?

No, this may actually be the real starting point.

Just as the Apple MAC computer broke through 10 million users in 1987, that was not the end, but the beginning of everything.

Today, Ethereum, which has about 10 million users monthly, officially starts its next decade.

Ethereum, and there is still 100 times growth potential.

1. Ethereum's TVL has grown 100 times, but it only accounts for 2% of the global financial asset scale.

2. Even if the user base of Ethereum grows by 100 times, it would only reach 1 billion. In contrast, the card issuance of Visa and Mastercard exceeds 3 billion.

3. Ethereum, much like the Apple computers of 1987, remains a gathering place for niche enthusiasts. In 1987, sales of the Mac series computers surpassed 10 million units; whereas as a global shared computer, by 2025, only about 10 million people (with 17 million addresses weekly) are using Ethereum globally each month.

4. Ethereum, a financial system refined over a decade, has seen a flow of trillions of dollars within it. Among these, the annual trading volume of stablecoins on Ethereum has reached $20 trillion.

5. The miracle of stablecoins is expected to be continuously replicated across various "product lines" on Ethereum.

In 2016, the market value of stablecoins was 1 million USD, reaching 1 billion USD in 2018, and 100 billion USD in 2021. A 1000-fold growth in two years and a 100-fold growth in four years; the miracle of stablecoins (tokenization of USD) may also occur in the tokenization of US Treasury bonds and US stocks.

6. Ethereum is providing alternatives to all mainstream financial products. What financial companies can do, it can do; what financial companies cannot do, it can still do.

7. Ethereum is tokenizing almost all mainstream financial products.

Ethereum is working on dollar tokenization (dollar stablecoins), which is a $40 trillion market that has currently reached a scale of $300 billion; Ethereum is also working on U.S. Treasury tokenization, which is a $36 trillion market that has currently reached a scale of $7 billion; Ethereum is working on U.S. stock tokenization, which is a $60 trillion market that is just getting started and has currently reached a scale of $500 million... All of these could suddenly explode in a few years, with a hundredfold growth in a year, just like the explosion of the dollar stablecoin market.

8. As a new global financial system, Ethereum still has at least 100 times the growth potential in the financial market. The TVL of Ethereum is only 80 billion dollars. Meanwhile, the asset size of the global financial system reaches 400 trillion dollars. Even if Ethereum grows 100 times, it would only account for 2% of the global financial asset size.

9. Ethereum is not a "replacement" for the global financial system; it is redefining what finance is. Just like the relationship between email and postal services. Postal services were once the primary means of communication in the world, and today, the volume of emails sent in a single day exceeds the total volume of postal mail sent in a year.

10 or 20 years ago, no one believed that more than 90% of human information would occur on the internet; now, very few people believe that 9% of human funds will circulate on Ethereum in the future.

Ethereum, waiting for every financial system to collapse

1. Every crisis in the global financial system is an opportunity for Ethereum.

2. Ethereum is waiting for every collapse of the mainstream financial system. And such collapses, big and small, happen almost every month, every year, and every cycle.

3. Economic crises, pandemics, wars, political turmoil, national bankruptcies, currency devaluation, geopolitical conflicts... Each major upheaval in the 195 countries worldwide represents the collapse of a certain part or link of the entire global financial system.

4. Over the past 100 years, there have been at least 10 major financial crises globally; 8 large-scale pandemics with global implications that caused massive deaths; more than 30 national bankruptcy events, with as many as 10 instances of currency collapse and hyperinflation-type "bankruptcies". In the past 50 years alone, there have been approximately 15 to 20 major wars with international impact. All of these will lead to changes in the financial system and create new market demands for Ethereum.

5. Ethereum is the center of "edge finance." Approximately 10 countries globally have been kicked out of the mainstream financial system, with up to 30-50 marginalized countries. Their ordinary citizens need to use stable currencies, merchants need to engage in cross-border trade, and the middle class needs to buy quality stocks.

Mainstream financial systems ban them, Ethereum accepts them.

6. Duan Yongping repeatedly emphasizes: Do the right thing, and do things right. Ethereum continues to do what centralized institutions such as governments, financial institutions, and internet companies cannot do. Doing decentralized things is doing the right thing.

7. Ethereum is delivering a dimensional blow to Swift. Ethereum has become the largest value network globally outside of Swift. Ethereum significantly surpasses Swift in several important dimensions, including but not limited to: network neutrality, 24/7 availability, transaction fees, cross-border transaction speed, transparency, and the level of automation in settlement assets. As important countries like the United States begin to embrace Ethereum in terms of compliance and regulation, there is a chance that in 30 years, Ethereum will replace Swift as the largest value network in the world.

8. There are nearly 20 countries under Swift sanctions and restrictions. Ethereum is permissionless, allowing any country and individual to trade here.

9. Athens and Sparta, Android and Apple, Ethereum and the global financial system... they are two sides of the same coin in this world; lacking any one of them is a deficiency.

10. The success of Ethereum is highly probable. The mainstream financial system will not suddenly collapse, but it will continue to deteriorate. Each instance of deterioration is beneficial to the new financial system, advantageous to Ethereum, and may present a good opportunity for the rapid expansion of Ethereum.

Ethereum's moat

1. The moat of Ethereum. First: sufficiently neutral. Among blockchains, only it and Bitcoin are sufficiently decentralized, not controlled by any single country or organization; second: sufficiently secure. The mainnet has been running for ten years, with a market value of 450 billion USD, and has never experienced large-scale outages, crashes, or thefts; third: a unique culture. DAO governance, early user airdrop mechanisms, open and transparent transactions, and a high emphasis on ZK technology and privacy protection... the Ethereum ecosystem has formed a good culture, and good culture gives rise to good business models.

2. On July 30, 2015, the Ethereum mainnet officially went live. In ten years, the Ethereum mainnet has never experienced a single downtime, outage, or theft.

3. Ethereum is a public good. Air can be polluted, water can be prohibited for use, land can be expropriated, roads can be denied access, and internet accounts can be banned... In this world, apart from the sun, moon, and a few other entities that humans cannot intervene with, there has never been a truly equal public good available for everyone to use until the emergence of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

4. Ethereum can be used without permission from anyone. Bitcoin is a currency shared by all humanity, while Ethereum is a supercomputer shared by all humanity. Anyone can deploy, run, validate, and use programs on the Ethereum network, and all of this does not rely on traditional servers or companies.

5. Ethereum is a decentralized financial system, a public good, digital oil, a supercomputer shared by all humanity, an immutable global ledger, the largest value network in the world outside of Swift, a decentralized internet, and a network state.

6. Ethereum is the absolute leader in the crypto world. In 2024, the annual trading volume of stablecoins will reach 28 trillion USD, with 70% of the transactions occurring within the Ethereum ecosystem; in 2021, when NFTs broke through, Ethereum was the main battleground, accounting for over 90% of the annual trading volume; in the summer of 2020, during the DeFi boom, Ethereum was the only center, with a market share as high as 95%-99%, and almost all decentralized financial activities such as lending, trading, and stablecoin protocols were conducted on it.

7. Ethereum is the biggest challenger to the global financial system. It offers a financial system that allows fair and secure transactions without regulation. When a country is kicked out of the mainstream financial system, Ethereum is one of the best solutions. When a business and merchant want to conduct normal cross-border transactions but cannot for various reasons, Ethereum provides a new financial system. When an individual cannot conveniently trade in foreign stock markets or real estate, Ethereum offers a regulatory-free financial system.

8. Ethereum is the source of innovation in the Crypto industry and is the center of nearly all large-scale blockchain applications. During the summer of DeFi in 2020, Ethereum was the only center with a market share of 95%-99%, and almost all lending, trading, and stablecoin protocols operated on it; in 2021, when NFTs broke into the mainstream, Ethereum was the main battleground, accounting for over 90% of the annual trading volume; by 2025, when stablecoins broke into the mainstream, global stablecoin annual transactions reached $28 trillion, with over 70% of the trading volume occurring on Ethereum.

9. Competition ultimately boils down to time, to who makes the fewest mistakes. And Ethereum is always the one that makes the fewest mistakes.

The Ethereum mainnet has been running for ten years without a large-scale shutdown or crash. Solana launched its mainnet in 2020 and has experienced more than 10 large-scale outages over five years, averaging 1-3 times per year, with multiple network restarts; Sui launched its mainnet in 2023 and has had two outages in two years.

10. The AI industry cannot exist without Nvidia; the mobile phone industry cannot exist without Apple; the Crypto industry cannot exist without Ethereum.

It is not impossible to surpass BTC.

1. Bitcoin is just a currency system, while Ethereum is not only a currency system but also a financial system, an internet system, and a supercomputer shared by all of humanity globally.

2. Those who believe that the value of Ethereum surpasses that of Bitcoin have never disappeared. Entrepreneur Mark Cuban (2021), Real Vision CEO Raoul (2023), and 1confirmation founder Nick Tomaino (May 2025) have all publicly and explicitly expressed this viewpoint at different times and places.

3. Cathie Wood is considered one of the celebrities with the most optimistic view on the future prospects of Ethereum. She believes that by 2032, the price of Ethereum could reach $166,000, with a market capitalization of $20 trillion. Currently, Ethereum's market capitalization is $440 billion, which also means that Cathie Wood believes there is nearly a 50-fold increase potential for Ethereum.

4. Ethereum is as scarce as Bitcoin. Currently, Ethereum's inflation rate is lower than that of major currencies such as BTC, gold, the US dollar, and the euro.

In 2024, the inflation rate for Ethereum is -0.2% to 0.5%, BTC 1.7% (it will drop to 0.85% after the halving in 2028, decreasing every four years), gold 1.5% (the supply of gold increases by about 1.5% – 2% each year), Euro 2.5%, US Dollar 3.3%.

However, some currencies have outrageous inflation rates: Egyptian Pound 28%, Iranian Rial 31%, Turkish Lira 58%, Argentine 250%, Zimbabwe 560%.

5. As the first decade of Bitcoin approaches, it reaches $3500. In the first decade of Ethereum, it reaches $3800.

In the first decade of Bitcoin, its market value reached 62 billion dollars; in the first decade of Ethereum, its market value reached 460 billion dollars.

6. Ethereum once "approached the Flippening" (surpassing) Bitcoin's market value. In mid-2017, Ethereum's market value even reached 80% of Bitcoin's; in mid-May 2021, Ethereum's market value even reached 48% of Bitcoin's market value. Currently, Ethereum only accounts for 20% of Bitcoin's market value.

7. Without Bitcoin, there is no need for the existence of the Crypto industry; without Ethereum, the Crypto industry loses its necessity.

8. From August 2015 to January 2016, the price of Ethereum remained below 0.3 dollars. Today, Ethereum is valued at 3900 dollars, an increase of more than 13000 times. During this period, BTC increased by several hundred times.

9. Ethereum has opened up two price growth engines: one is the US Ethereum spot ETF, and the other is the Ethereum strategic reserve institution. It is expected to happen this October. Ethereum will also launch a third growth engine - the staking feature supported by the Ethereum spot ETF. Once opened, ETH holders participating in staking will receive an additional annual yield of about 3%.

10. In the next decade, when Ethereum becomes as popular as the Internet, the number of Ethereum users will increase by 100 times, and the funds on Ethereum (TVL) will grow by 100 times.