XRP ETF odds hit 93% as SEC reviews multiple applications

Despite continued delays from the US Securities and Exchange Commission, the probability of an XRP spot ETF approval in 2025 has surged to 93%, according to Polymarket — up from under 70% just a month ago.

This sharp rise highlights a significant shift in investor sentiment, driven by growing institutional interest, recent product launches, and Ripple’s expanding global footprint.

Market participants appear to be brushing off regulatory setbacks, with many viewing this as a temporary phase in a broader transition toward mainstream acceptance of XRP-based financial products.

Data suggests that expectations of approval are not only high but accelerating, even in the face of procedural obstacles.

SEC deferrals have not dampened investor confidence

Judge Analisa Torres recently rejected a revised settlement proposal in the Ripple v SEC case, citing procedural shortcomings. Around the same time, the SEC postponed its ruling on a spot XRP ETF filed by CoinShares.

Despite this, trading data on the prediction platform Polymarket shows that investors increasingly expect a green light before the end of 2025.

The consistent climb in approval odds over the past month reflects a belief that recent delays are more bureaucratic than indicative of outright opposition.

The 93% figure marks the highest probability recorded on Polymarket to date, suggesting that regulatory hesitation is not deterring institutions from positioning themselves ahead of a potential breakthrough.

More firms join XRP ETF race amid growing demand

At least five asset managers have already thrown their hats into the ring, with applications pending from Bitwise, 21Shares, Canary Capital, Grayscale, and Franklin Templeton.

While none of these have yet secured SEC clearance, their interest underscores the perceived long-term viability of a regulated XRP investment vehicle.

Crypto.com has also revealed plans for an XRP ETF, adding to the expanding list of firms seeking to tap institutional demand.

In parallel, DeFi-oriented initiatives involving Uphold and Flare Networks are rumoured to be developing decentralised ETF-style products based on XRP, further broadening the scope of possible offerings.

Product launches and price data point to continued interest

XRP-related futures products are already making inroads. CME Group launched a new XRP futures contract in May, which has since drawn steady investor interest.

Separately, Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin — approved for use in Dubai — is being seen as another indicator of regulatory receptiveness abroad.

These developments coincide with XRP’s solid price performance. The token has gained 331% over the past year, including a 2.8% rise in the past 30 days.

In June alone, it has risen by 2.96%, pushing the price to $2.24 at the time of writing. Price volatility remains, but the direction has largely been positive in recent months.

Source: CoinMarketCap

Monthly performance figures show a strong start in January with a 46% gain, followed by corrections in February and March. April brought a modest recovery of 4.98%, while May posted a slight decline.

Still, the overall trajectory appears bullish, supported by the anticipation surrounding a potential ETF.

2025 could be a decisive year for XRP

With the final phase of the SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple set to conclude on June 13, market participants are watching closely. A definitive resolution could pave the way for faster regulatory approvals and provide clarity for issuers waiting in the wings.

Whether or not an XRP ETF is approved in the coming months, the level of activity around the asset suggests that 2025 may be the most consequential year for XRP since its inception.

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