金十数据6月2日讯,中CS建建研报指出,3月底以来硅料价格快速下降,当前除颗粒硅以外的其他厂商均已开始亏损现金成本。 硅料价格下降主要系行业库存快速积累,截至5月24日硅料行业库存已经来到30.3万吨,对应硅料库存周期1.5个月,对应硅片库存周期2.4个月。 基于过剩+价格压力,5月开始硅料企业停产检修、推迟投产情况显有增加。 综合考虑硅料现有产能及检修情况,预计2024年硅料产量约为190万吨左右(此前预期全年产量230万吨),但即使当前行业检修、technical reform 数量增加,今年硅料供给相对于需求而言仍较过剩,在需求端出现超出预期的非线性增长之前,预计硅料价格将长期处于L型底部稳定。

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