Non-farm payrolls shock devastates the crypto market! Powell extinguishes September rate cut expectations, and the US stock market becomes a key barometer for the rebound.

The crypto market had a dismal start in August, with Bitcoin falling 4% weekly and losing the critical range of 117,000-120,000 USD, while altcoins generally experienced a big dump of over 15%. Powell's statement on the uncertainty of a rate cut in September, combined with the explosive US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data (actual 73,000 vs expected 110,000), triggered a chain of sell-offs. The accumulation of ETH by enterprises faced obstacles, with SharpLink and Bitmine's stock prices plummeting 30% and 23% respectively within the week, and Spot ETF saw the largest single-day outflow in six months. This week focuses on the U.S. stock market's ability to digest the downward revision of employment data; if the U.S. stock market stabilizes, it may lead to a technical rebound in the crypto market.

Market Weekly Review: Macroeconomic Headwinds Trigger a Wave of Selling The crypto market faced a double blow in the past week. Bitcoin fell nearly 4% throughout the week, breaking below the $117,000 - $120,000 range that had been maintained since July 11, with some alts dropping over 15%. The decline unfolded in two stages:

1. Powell Douses Rate Cut Expectations: After the Fed's July FOMC meeting, Chairman Powell stated that a rate cut in September is "still uncertain," emphasizing the need to confirm the impact of tariff inflation and shifting the focus to inflation risks rather than employment data. Despite divisions within the Fed (Governor Waller calling for a preemptive rate cut), Powell's views currently prevail, causing Bitcoin to fall to $115,800.
2. US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) Trigger Second Round of Big Dump: The July Non-farm Employment report released on August 1 showed only an increase of 73,000 jobs (expected 110,000), and the data for May-June was significantly revised down by 258,000 (June revised from 147,000 to 14,000). More seriously, the U-6 broad unemployment rate rose to 7.9% (highest since the pandemic), with long-term unemployment worsening. The data confirms the risk of economic recession, and Bitcoin plummeted to around $112,000 on that day.

Institutional buying and ETF fund flows are shrinking in sync The institutional forces that led the rise in July significantly receded last week:

• Spot ETF flow disruption: After July 30, the inflow of ETF funds driving up BTC/ETH sharply decreased, with August 1 recording the largest single-day net outflow since February.
• Companies Hoarding ETH Encounter Resistance: Despite SharpLink's high-profile announcement of increasing its holdings by $296 million in ETH and staking, Bitmine's CEO claims the intrinsic value of ETH is $60,000. Standard Chartered predicts companies will hold 10% of the circulating supply, yet the price of ETH still fell 7.2% over the week. Major holders SharpLink (-30.80%) and Bitmine (-23.16%) saw their stock prices plummet simultaneously.
• On-chain Alert: The accumulation ratio of Ethereum holdings has dropped to 27.57% (two-month low), indicating a weakening of investors' willingness to increase holdings.

Market sentiment turns cautious, bears warn of risks Under the spread of pessimistic sentiment, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes predicts that BTC may pull back to $100,000 and ETH may drop to $3,000, primarily due to the implementation of U.S. tariff policies and weak global credit expansion.

This Week's Outlook: Stability in US Stocks is a Prerequisite for Crypto Rebound The warm flow of July came to an abrupt halt, and the direction of the crypto market this week depends on the U.S. stocks' ability to digest the impact of the downward revision of the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP):

• Historical Reference: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down over 800,000 inflated jobs last year, but it did not trigger sustained volatility in the stock market.
• Correction Logic: Last Friday's big dump in the US stock market was partly due to high-level pullback demand, with weak employment data providing an opportunity. If the US stock market can quickly recover, the crypto market is expected to rebound in sync.
• Interest Rate Expectation Game: Although Powell denied a rate cut in September, the CME FedWatch tool still predicts three rate cuts within the year. If economic data continues to deteriorate, the pressure for a policy shift will increase.

Key Monitoring Data:

• Monday: Employment Trends Index (ETI) of the World Federation of Large Enterprises
• US stock trends (especially tech stocks performance)
• Encryption Spot ETF Capital Flow
• Announcement of changes in corporate ETH holdings

Conclusion: The "statistical illusion" of US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) has collapsed, exposing the weakness of the US economy, forcing the crypto market to enter a risk repricing phase in sync with US stocks. Although the short-term technical oversold conditions brew rebound momentum, investors should be cautious of the dual pressures of macro liquidity tightening and institutional buying exhaustion. This week, focus on the intensity of US stocks' reaction to the downward revision of employment; if the Nasdaq stabilizes, it will serve as a leading signal for sentiment recovery in the crypto market. Strategically, it is advisable to control position leverage and gradually accumulate ETH Spot ETF positions during dips, considering the long-term opportunities arising from the approval of the ETF, a shift in Federal Reserve policies, and the BTC halving cycle. During the Asia-Pacific session, closely monitor the funding movements of Japanese and Korean institutions and the changes in on-chain liquidity of stablecoins.